"A Day Without Space"
Public Discussion Forum
U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Remarks of Edward Morris
Director, Office of Space Commercialization
U.S. Department of Commerce
October 16, 2008
Good morning. It is a pleasure to be here on behalf of the Commerce Department to address the important role space plays in our everyday lives. My organization, the Office of Space Commercialization, is the principal unit for space commerce activities within the Department of Commerce. By "space commerce," I mean U.S. business using the unique medium of space to benefit our economy. My office's mission is to foster the conditions for the economic growth and technological advancement of the U.S. commercial space industry. Participating in public workshops like these helps to advance our mission by increasing awareness of opportunities to promote private sector investment in U.S. space commerce.
Today, space and space commerce have become so well integrated into the basic infrastructure of our society that most people don't even think about or notice it any more. Ask the average person on the street about space and she is likely to talk about the moon landing or the Hubble Space Telescope... great achievements, for sure, with lasting impacts on our national pride, education, and scientific enlightenment. But ask that person how space affects her personally, on a daily basis, and she will likely draw a blank. If she thinks hard enough, she may realize she enjoys satellite TV or radio, and she may also remember that the navigation system in her car or cell phone is enabled by GPS satellites. But it probably won't occur to her that space also assists or enables her daily phone calls, internet connections, ATM transactions, news channel access, and weather reports.
To say that space has become a victim of its own success is a huge understatement. Because our space systems work so well today, they have become transparent to the end users, who simply take them for granted. As the saying goes, "Out of sight, out of mind." It is only on those rare occasions when satellite services are interrupted that we realize the full extent of our dependence on them. We all remember the Galaxy satellite that went out in 1998, wreaking all kinds of havoc for pagers and other communications systems up and down the East Coast. But think about it -- that was a decade ago. Ten years later, we now have commercial remote sensing satellites, direct-to-home satellite television, mobile satellite radio, next-generation weather satellites, and explosive growth in GPS markets. Our dependence on space services has compounded by an order of magnitude, bringing significant added benefits but also significant added risks. If you think it's hard to get work done when your internet connection goes out at the office, imagine losing that plus your cell phone, landlines, TV, radio, ATM's, credit cards, and possibly even your electricity.
In 20 minutes, there is no way for me to cover all of the possible problems our nation would face if we were to lose all of our space-based assets for a day. So I will focus my remarks on four key types of satellites – communications, navigation, meteorological, and remote sensing -- providing examples of how losing each would impact our daily lives.
Communications Satellites
It's hard to believe that only 50 years ago, the idea of a communications satellite was the stuff of science fiction. But thanks to visionaries like Arthur C. Clarke, comsats are now commonplace and deeply embedded into the fabric of modern life. Our long distance phone calls go through satellites. TV entertainment, both live and recorded, is routinely relayed from studio to station via satellite. Even your local news channel uses satellites to deliver live reports on location.
Without space, we would lose all of this. All international calls and data traffic would be rerouted through terrestrial or undersea lines, stretching their capacity to the limits and possibly preventing calls from going through. In regions where there is no terrestrial infrastructure, such as rural Africa and China, telecommunications would become impossible. International financial transactions could be disrupted. Our embassies would lose their ability to communicate securely with Washington. News updates from Baghdad and Islamabad would be severely limited. TV stations would be limited to broadcasting recorded content from their local archives. People who live or work in remote areas and depend on satellites for TV, radio, and internet access would lose all service. Trucking and shipping companies would not be able to track their fleets. Some gas stations would lose the ability to authorize credit card transactions, eliminating the option to pay-at-the-pump and causing delays as people line up at the cash register.
Navigation Satellites
The Global Positioning System (GPS) is the world's premier system for space-based positioning, navigation, and timing. Thanks to our nation's longstanding policy to make GPS available free of direct user fees to civilians around the world, coupled with a long track record of dependable service from the DoD, tens of millions of users worldwide have embraced GPS technology. These users have integrated GPS into nearly every facet of society, including public safety, transportation, finance, and manufacturing.
If we were to lose GPS for a day, the effects would be serious and widespread. Businesses and governments would continue operating, but at significantly reduced levels of efficiency. Airliners would have to revert to legacy systems and procedures that waste expensive jet fuel on inefficient routes. Cargo vessels entering harbors would slow to a crawl to ensure safety, or they might not be allowed to dock at all. Container cranes at the port would revert to cumbersome, manual operations. Logistical supply chain management systems would lose or degrade their ability to track the flow of parts to their factories and products from their warehouses. Construction and mining projects would become delayed as expensive, manual labor replaced systems used to automate surveying, regrading, earth moving, and asset tracking. Farms would lose their ability to operate 24 hours a day using automated machinery, and as a result they might not be able to harvest all their crops before they spoil in the field.
Without the atomic clock based timing service provided by GPS, distributed networks requiring tight time synchronization would begin to suffer from clock drift, leading to degraded performance and service outages. The President's National Security Telecommunications Advisory Committee (NSTAC) recently assessed the impacts of a theoretical GPS disruption to the U.S. communications infrastructure. They polled the key players in the wireline, wireless, satellite, cable, and broadcast industries. During the first day, the effects would be mitigated due to the widespread use of timing equipment that can "freewheel" without GPS for up to 24 hours. But by the end of the day, the equipment would be drifting and networks would start falling out of synch. Wireless services, especially those built to the CDMA standard, would fail to hand off calls from one cell to the next, leading to dropped connections. Computer networks would experience slowdowns as data is pushed through finite pipelines at reduced bit rates. The same would be true for major networks for communication and entertainment, since they are all IP-based today and require ultra-precise timing to ensure digital traffic reaches its destination. However, the NSTAC's conclusion was that sufficient backups and mitigations are in place today to ensure minimal impacts of a GPS outage for up to 30 days. The only exception would be that the E911 service for mobile phones would no longer have access to GPS. Many handsets would lose E911 completely, while others would revert to network triangulation techniques offering less accuracy and thus longer emergency response times.
For a real world example, look no further than January 22, 2007, when an unintentional interference event in San Diego caused a loss of GPS service for several hours. A major wireless carrier reported the loss of GPS at approximately 100 cell towers, but their rubidium clocks successfully freewheeled through the outage. A paging network was not so well prepared. Their equipment could only freewheel for one hour. Eventually, some 15 to 20 sites went offline, interrupting commercial, medical, and public service paging in the entire San Diego area. Fortunately, there were no major disasters that day that required quick-reaction emergency response.
Outside the telecom industry, other networks would suffer from a loss of GPS. Financial markets requiring good time synchronization would not be affected immediately, but their clocks would begin to drift. Electric power grids requiring precise time frequency stability would begin to degrade. By the end of 24 hours, it is also possible that clock drift and loss of synchronization could lead to problems in load balancing and energy transfers from one grid to another.
Another important GPS application that would be lost is the ability to monitor the Earth's ionosphere using the GPS radio signal as a sounding tool. The Space Weather Prediction Center, part of the Commerce Department, uses a network of GPS tracking stations to provide warnings of ionospheric events that can knock out power grids and expose airliners on polar routes to harmful radiation. Without GPS, this warning capability would be significantly degraded, increasing risks to property, commerce, and human safety. The U.S. Government recognizes the vulnerability of GPS to intentional and unintentional interference. In response to Presidential direction, the Department of Homeland Security has developed an Interference Detection and Mitigation Plan that promotes improved coordination, cooperation, and information exchange among government agencies, enabling prioritized responses to incidents using the best available resources. DHS is also looking into alternative solutions to provide a national backup system to GPS. At the same time, the government is modernizing the GPS satellite constellation to broadcast additional civilian signals at higher power levels to increase the robustness of the service for end users.
Meteorological Satellites
Not many people realize that the Department of Commerce includes the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which commands a fleet of meteorological satellites to observe our weather and climate. Over 105 million U.S. households rely on NOAA's weather and environment forecasts each day. NOAA's GOES, POES, and NPOESS satellites, along with NASA's QuikScat and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellites and in situ measurements, enable a complete global weather monitoring system. These satellites are on duty 24 hours a day to support forecasting and prediction services critical to our economic and national interests, especially during the annual hurricane season.
In a typical hurricane season, NOAA's forecasts, warnings, and the associated emergency responses result in a $3 billion savings of lives and property. Advances in satellite information, data assimilation techniques, and computing power have led to more accurate weather forecasts and warnings. Without satellites, hurricane forecasts would be severely degraded, since there is no other way to monitor a storm's entire development on the open ocean. On a day without space, if there were a hurricane approaching the United States -- as there is today with Omar -- the lack of accurate forecasts could lead businesses to prematurely or needlessly shut down coastal operations to protect against the possibility of damage. For the oil and gas industry, shutting down rigs and refineries is extremely expensive. Similarly, the fishing and shipping industries lose business whenever they have to bring vessels and equipment into safe harbor. But this is less harmful than continuing to operate in the path of a storm, which is another possible consequence of inaccurate forecasting without satellites.
NOAA's satellites also contribute significantly to an important international search and rescue system known as COSPAS-SARSAT. The satellite system receives distress alerts from radio beacons that transmit signals during an emergency. Since the system became operational in 1982, COSPAS-SARSAT has aided in the rescue of over 24,500 lives worldwide, including 191 in 2008 alone. If we were to lose SARSAT service, it would be impossible for people lost at sea or deep in the wilderness to call for help using their emergency beacons.
Remote Sensing Satellites
The fourth and fastest growing area I want to address is commercial space-based remote sensing, which is the collection of earth imagery from space by private sector firms. This is of particular interest to me since the Commerce Department is responsible for both promoting and licensing the operation of commercial remote sensing satellites. Within the past year, we have seen two major U.S. remote sensing firms launch state-of-the-art satellites capable of taking and selling pictures at up to 0.5 meter resolution in support of commercial customers. The imagery has been integrated into online geographical information systems and applied to hundreds of different lines of business, from agriculture and resource exploration to real estate and land use planning. One leading industry analyst estimates that the space-based remote sensing industry was worth $300 million in 2006 and could exceed $1 billion by 2012.
Losing access to remote sensing satellites for one day might not be critical to all users, depending on their application. For example, a surveyor may not care whether a given plot of land was imaged today or six months ago. However, a farmer battling blight may need to know within 24 hours whether the crop treatments he applied are having an effect. A border patrol officer may require daily updates to properly monitor crossings. In such cases, aerial photography is not really a viable alternative unless the satellite outage was known in advance so an over-flight could be ordered.
The news media often uses commercial satellite imagery to report on events occurring on the other side of the world. The loss of such imagery on the day of a major event, such as a flood or bombing, may not be critical for the media, but it would certainly be an inconvenience.
If an earthquake, tsunami, forest fire, or other natural disaster occurred on our hypothetical day without space, we would have no ability to photograph it quickly from space and assess the damage. We would have no satellite imagery to assist in planning relief efforts and guiding rescue workers to the areas of greatest need. Here again, aerial photography would still be possible, but without GPS to precisely geolocate where the airborne cameras are pointing, the raw images would be hard to match against a map, especially if known landmarks are no longer present.
Without remote sensing imagery, we would lose the ability to track the occurrence of harmful algal blooms (sometimes referred to as "red tide") and issue safety warnings to beachgoers and fishermen.
Conclusion
The loss of space-based capabilities would have an immediate impact on our daily lives; however backup systems do exist to enable continuation of critical functions and activities. The real problem emerges when the loss extends past a day or two, when backup systems are relied upon to perform all the functions currently provided by space assets. The long-term impacts of losing space capabilities could have a paralyzing effect on our daily lives. Our office continues to raise awareness of the importance of space to commerce in addition to our public safety and national security. Check out our website at www.space.commerce.gov for more information on space commerce and see the Space Commerce Act of 2008, recently introduced by the House and Senate that outlines our how we will continue to educate stakeholders and decision-makers on the importance of space and space commerce to our nation. Thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today.
These are the remarks as prepared for delivery. A transcript of the actual remarks can be found at the event website.
